Athletic model projects every game – the Athletic

Austin Mock’s projection model is derived from the play-by-play data, adjusted for opponent, home / away, rest, and then produces projected points for (xPF) and points against (xPA) for each. team at FBS level. From there, the model then produces a projected spread and total based on all of the model’s inputs for each game. Over the past two seasons, this model has outperformed the sports betting market. For more on the model, see Austin’s introductory article on his model.

If you followed my college football model bets last week, you had an appetizer for college football coaching carousel madness led by Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly. Last week my model had two of the hottest games of the season which (thankfully) resulted in a 1-1 record. We were so close to going 2-0. Thanks North Carolina.

The Tar Heels kicked off a basket to take a 31-20 with just 2:18 left in the fourth quarter. Of course, I feel pretty good considering we were holding under 62.5 and that would require two touchdowns to be scored to lose. What’s better than an easy winner on a Friday night? Good.

NC State only needed two plays – the drive-opening play was a sack – to find the end zone on a 64-yard pass to Emeka Emezie. Again it’s 30-28 with 1:35 to go, we’re good, right? We’ll probably avoid overtime and NC State needs to recover an in-play kick or the game is over. You can guess what happened next.

You guessed it.


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